Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 30

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#917 New York Yankees (Cole) +105 over Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 5:40 PM CT

Gerrit Cole hasn’t looked quite himself so far in his abbreviated 2024 season with a 5.40 ERA after a run in the past decade that makes a strong case for him being MLB’s best starting pitcher. His two bad starts this season have both come against the Mets who have familiarity against him, and the Mets have ultimately been one of baseball’s top teams across the board in the past two months. Cole has a 3.20 ERA in his other five starts and Philadelphia is just 10-12 in July while -17 in scoring as while the Phillies still have MLB’s best record, this has been a complacent group battling some health issues in recent weeks, with the team unable to completely slam door on the NL East division race. It will be a losing month of July for the Yankees as well but with 33 runs scored in the past three games the offense appears to be back on track. Aaron Nola has his worst K/9 since his rookie season right now and he has a FIP well above his solid 3.44 ERA. Nola has a 4.66 ERA over his last eight starts with seven home runs allowed and in his career he has worse numbers in the second halves of his seasons. The Phillies have an 8.83 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games with a 1.82 WHIP and foes batting .288, while in contrast New York relievers have held opponents to a .218 batting average in that span, even with a jump in ERA for the usually strong Yankees relief corps. In the past 10 games vs. right-handers the Yankees are batting .292 compared to .192 for Philadelphia with New York posting more than double the scoring average of Philadelphia in that snapshot. Cole rarely registers an underdog price and the momentum is with New York with Jazz Chisholm so far providing a spark as a new addition to the lineup, while several Philadelphia regulars are slumping right now.