Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | July 21

Nelly’s is 2-0 out of the All-Star Break – check out Sunday’s TOTAL play!

#970 Texas Rangers (Heaney) -120 over Baltimore Orioles (Kremer) 1:35 PM CT

After limping into the All-Star break, the Orioles have a pair of emphatic wins in Texas and are now 5-1 vs. the Rangers this season following the disappointing ALDS sweep against Texas last October. Dean Kremer was hit hard in the decisive Game 3 of that series in Arlington and Kremer has not faced Texas in any of the meetings so far this season. Kremer’s numbers this season are significantly worse compared to last season with a big climb in his BB/9 and HR/9 rates while his FIP is 5.08. While Kremer won 13 games last season, he has had mixed results since returning from injury in July and Baltimore must be weighing whether they can count on Kremer in the rotation for the stretch run. Andrew Heaney has a tough-luck 3-10 record, but he owns a 3.79 ERA in 19 games this season with good strikeout counts and a terrific run of results if you take out the first month of the season. Heaney has a 3.00 ERA since May 1 with a 9.4 K/9 and he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 consecutive starts. Neither team has great bullpen numbers for the season but the splits in the past 10 games favor Texas. The Orioles are 44-26 vs. right-handed starters this season but just 16-12 vs. left-handers and Baltimore’s home run rate falls significantly vs. lefties. Heaney has a much higher ceiling than Kremer on the mound for a potential high-end performance and the Orioles are a .500 team in July while -20 in scoring. Texas is 9-6 since June 30 while +17 in scoring as the 2023 World Series champions still have the potential to make a late season climb to sneak back into the AL playoff race.