Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | July 7

Don’t miss daytime MLB Sunday from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton:

#971 San Francisco Giants (Birdsong) +115 over Cleveland Guardians (Carrasco) 12:40 PM CT

While Cleveland is difficult to fade at home given the 29-11 record for the Guardians at Progressive Field, San Francisco did win 4-2 here on Friday and the Guardians also lost at home Wednesday against the White Sox. The pitching staff for Cleveland has allowed four or more runs in all five games in July and in eight of the past 10 games for the team, with Cleveland only 4-6 in the past 10 games. A comeback season for Carlos Carrasco has been a good story but his numbers are marginal with a 5.21 ERA and a 7.2 K/9 this season. Carrasco has been at great risk to allow home runs the past few seasons and he has allowed 13 this season already. After a strong run in May, Carrasco has a 5.28 ERA in six starts since the start of June. The bullpen for Cleveland has elite season numbers but in the past 10 games the Guardians have a 4.58 bullpen ERA, with worse numbers than the Giants relief unit in that timeframe. San Francisco has a 1.66 bullpen ERA in the past five games as well for great recent results. Neither team has enjoyed ideal starting efforts in this series so far, but rookie Hayden Birdsong has elite potential. Birdsong had seen his amazing minor league strikeout numbers translate successfully to the MLB level with a 9.3 K/9 in his first two MLB starts. He has allowed three home runs already in the brief start to his season, but he has pitched well with runners on base and despite being only 22, he has displayed the demeanor of a starter with staying power in the San Francisco rotation. The Giants are two games below .500 and stuck behind several teams in a crowded NL playoff race but this has been a very successful lineup with four or more runs scored in 13 of the past 16 games. On the current 8-4 run, two losses were extra-inning results and the Giants have allowed five or fewer runs in 12 of the past 13 games. The shaky road record for San Francisco against Cleveland’s elite home record does lead to some pause but San Francisco is in better form overall right now and the upside of Birdsong is more appealing than the proven mediocrity of Carrasco.