Free Pick | Sunday | NFL | Oct. 8

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#462 New England Patriots -1.5 over New Orleans Saints 12:00 PM CT

Not much has gone right for the Patriots who hit rock bottom with a 38-3 loss in Week 4 at Dallas. New England’s losses have come against teams that are a combined 10-2 however with the Eagles, Dolphins, and Cowboys all looking like viable Super Bowl threats through the first month. New England has faced elite defensive teams the past two weeks as this week’s pairing with the Saints won’t be anything new and this will be the first home game since a competitive Week 2 loss to Miami, holding the league’s top offense to only 24 points. New Orleans has been one of the NFL’s worst offensive teams and the 2-0 start came with wins by a combined total of four points as this team isn’t far from starting 0-4. Mac Jones has taken a lot of heat for his turnover issues, but his QBR and QB Rating are almost identical to Derek Carr’s and Jones has been asked to do much more. Carr has taken 13 sacks and has thrown for just 763 yards with only two touchdown passes despite the wealth of skill players for the Saints. The Saints have also faced only one current winning team this season as a favorable schedule is a primary factor in what led many to be bullish on New Orleans this season. New England is 6th in the NFL in yards per play defense despite facing the Eagles, Dolphins, and Cowboys as they have been better defensively than the Saints in many areas even with a very weak set of opposing quarterbacks faced by New Orleans. The Saints have not topped 20 points in a game this season and while many see this as the end of the road for Bill Belichick, the team has an opportunity the next two weeks to get to 3-3 before a pair of huge division games to close the month. New England shouldn’t be ruled out in a critical spot for the season hosting what has been a disappointing Saints squad.