Free Pick | MLB | Monday | Aug. 28

Nelly’s is 4-0 the past three days in MLB with a 40-29 run since the All-Star Break. We are on a 19-11 run in interleague picks, winning 5 of our last 6 7* top plays, going 2-1 or 3-0 in 12 of our last 16 MLB 2/3 offers, while showing a net profit in 7 of 8 individual weeks from July 3 to Aug. 27!

Check out a 5* for Monday night or consider our World Series package with a price drop today!

Nelly’s also won our first college football pick of the season on Saturday!

Bobby Dalton is on a 10-6 run while 67-44, +110.0 stars from June 11 to Aug. 27! Join him in American League action for Monday night baseball.

Dalton also went 5-1 in football picks last weekend!

#911 New York Yankees (Severino) +105 over Detroit Tigers (Olson) 5:40 PM CT

Reese Olson has a 5.29 ERA in 68 innings as a rookie for the Tigers, but his numbers are much worse as a starter with a 6.11 ERA if you take out three strong long relief outings in mop-up duty. Since joining the rotation in July Olson has a 6.38 ERA with seven home runs allowed in seven starts and for the season he has a worse ERA at home, while so far posting a 6.87 ERA in August. The Yankees are having a miserable season, but they are only -18 in scoring while 7-17 in August as there have been several close game losses. New York has scored four or more runs five times in the past seven games as the lineup remains capable and Luis Severino still has more potential than his 7.26 ERA suggests. His xFIP is more than two runs lower than his ERA but he has been saddled with a .329 BABIP and a HR/9 that is more than double his career average. Comerica Park is a difficult place to hit home runs as he should improve his ugly road numbers, and this is a favorable draw considering he has faced recent contests vs. Atlanta, Houston, and Baltimore. Severino has allowed four or fewer runs in five of his last seven starts but a pair of awful outings vs. the AL East leading Orioles skew his numbers upward, allowing 16 runs and 20 hits in six innings vs. Baltimore. The New York bullpen is still solid, and a greatly preferable unit compared to a Tigers relief group that has a 7.91 ERA with a 1.94 WHIP in the past 10 games. Detroit stole Friday’s game Houston in the ninth inning after being no-hit for seven innings but went on to allow 26 runs over the weekend with short starts from the two of the team’s better starters including needing to use six relievers Sunday. New York hit three home runs yesterday despite a heated loss at Tampa Bay and while New York has just a slightly better record than Detroit, New York has nine more wins vs. winning teams and is 93 runs stronger in scoring differential as New York would likely lead the AL Central if these teams flipped their schedules and divisions. A lot has changed, but it is also worth noting that New York was priced at -340 the last time Severino started against the Tigers last June.