Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 18

Nelly’s is 4-0 since the All-Star Break, Dalton is on a 34-14 MLB run! Check out Tuesday offers!

#970 Seattle Mariners (Woo) -130 over Minnesota Twins (Ober) 8:40 PM CT

The Twins swept Oakland out of the All-Star break but all three games were tight. A 2-0 lead last night could not be held as Minnesota lost in Seattle 7-6, even while outhitting the Mariners 12-7. Byron Buxton is in a brutal slump to put a rally-killing hole in the middle of the lineup and Minnesota’s six runs last night included four runs via two 2-out home runs for some good fortune. The bullpen for the Twins has been worked hard in the past four games since the break and Bailey Ober’s 2.61 ERA looks suspicious. His FIP is 3.39 and he has benefitted from a nearly 81 percent strand rate, while featuring a .254 BABIP that is likely to climb. Ober has good road numbers but just five of his 14 starts have been on the road with two scoreless outings skewing the numbers in a small sample. Rookie Bryan Woo has an 11.2 K/9 in seven starts for elite strikeout numbers and he now faces the most strikeout prone lineup in all of MLB for a favorable draw. Woo has a 3.08 FIP next to his still solid 3.63 ERA and if you take out a forgivable shaky MLB debut in Texas, Woo has a 2.20 ERA in his last six starts, allowing two or fewer runs and six or fewer hits in all six outings. Minnesota has a 5.29 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games compared to a 2.61 ERA for Seattle relievers in that span and this pairing of young starters is likely to come down to the relief performances in the final three innings.