Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | July 9

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#919 Baltimore Orioles (Gibson) +130 over Minnesota Twins (Ryan) 1:10 PM CT

Kyle Gibson has made 95 starts at Target Field as he should have a good comfort level heading back to Minneapolis. The Orioles are 27-17 in road games and Baltimore has pulled to within two games of AL East leading Tampa Bay, an unfathomable scenario at the end of April given the historic start for the Rays. Gibson has marginal numbers in 18 starts but his FIP is nearly a run lower than his 4.73 ERA and he has earned eight wins. Zeroes aren’t common for Gibson but he generally keeps the Orioles in games with four or fewer runs allowed in all but three of his starts this season while pitching at least five innings in all but three starts this season. Baltimore has won three straight vs. the Twins after losing the first two meetings of the season and Minnesota has scored a combined total of five runs in the past four meetings in this series. The Twins are one of MLB’s least productive offensive teams and Minnesota is batting .242 with 3.8 runs per nine in the past 10 games. Joe Ryan has posted a good first half of the season overall, but his recent form has been rough, going 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA in his last seven starts. Ryan has three times allowed five or more runs in that span and has allowed 10 home runs. Minnesota has a good bullpen, but the Twins have scored two or fewer runs six times in the past 10 games and three of the four exceptions came while sweeping the last place Royals. Five Ryan quality starts have come in the AL Central as he has not pitched as well against quality teams and the .500 Twins are just 24-31 vs. winning teams this season. Baltimore has 30 wins vs. winning teams this season and while the scoring differentials for these teams are similar, only the Orioles look like a serious AL contender.