Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | June 25

#903 New York Mets (Carrasco) +160 over Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) 12:35 PM CT

The Mets have won four of five games with the Phillies this season including a 4-1 win behind Carlos Carrasco in late May. The veteran right-hander has an ugly 6.34 ERA in 44 innings this season, but he was a solid option for New York last season and most of his struggles this season have been at Citi Field as he had made four solid road starts in a row. The Mets have a 2.88 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and were able to win yesterday while using fewer relievers than the Phillies. The Mets have had a brutal month of June going 6-14 but New York is only -9 in run differential for the month, and the offense for the Mets has scored four or more runs in 13 of the past 17 games. Zack Wheeler has been one of the NL’s best pitchers the past three seasons with three consecutive seasons with an ERA of 2.92 or lower. He is being priced as that type of elite starter Sunday even though he has not been quite as sharp this season with a 3.48 ERA. Wheeler has padded his numbers with recent scoreless outings vs. Oakland and Detroit but he struggled in his last familiar division matchup allowing seven runs vs. Washington and he had a 4.90 ERA in four starts against his former team last season. The bullpen has been a challenge for the Phillies all season and the current form of the offense has been less than ideal with the Phillies scoring three or fewer runs in five of the past six games. That makes it tough to justify the biggest favorite price for the Phillies in any of the past 10 meetings between these rivals, a run in which the Mets have won eight of 10 games.

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