Nelly’s MLB | 2023 Futures | March 29

The Padres will win the NL West in 2023.  I’m not sure if that is a “hot take” as the kids today say, but it’d be the first time in 17 years that has happened. It would be the first time in 9 years someone other than the Dodgers won it. Last year, the Dodgers finished 22 games ahead of the Padres.  So what has changed such to cause such a seismic shift in what will be one of baseball’s most watched division races?

The Padres have an expected payroll that that now exceeds the Dodgers for the first time in history (probably…I didn’t source 75 years’ worth of payroll data).  Peter Seidler, the Padres’ owner, has given GM AJ Preller the directive to assemble a roster than can win the World Series, and he’s done exactly that. The Padres brought in Xander Bogarts on an 11-year, $280 million deal to play shortstop and lead off for a lineup whose 1-4 may be the best in baseball with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. when he’s eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20^th. The rest of the lineup features 2-time All-Star Jake Cronenworth, former KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, and Gold Glover Trent Grisham.  A resurgent Matt Carpenter will start out in RF and replace Nelson Cruz at DH when Tatis returns. 

While not as deep as other rotations, the star power at the top is real. I can assure you no lineup would be excited to see Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell in a playoff series.  After a a few bumps in the road after being traded, Josh Hader righted the ship late in the year returning to his status as one of the most feared pitchers in baseball.  He will lead a bullpen that should be able to close out any game the Padres lead after 5 or 6 innings.  Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and Drew Pomeranz are all strikeout artists projected to average 11 K/9; a key trait for any good bullpen.

The Padres’ ascent pairs nicely with the Dodgers taking a step back. Trea Turner left for the Phillies, and his intended replacement, Gavin Lux, tore his ACL in spring training and will miss all of 2023. Despite Turners departure, the Dodgers still have star power in Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith. However, the team’s depth will be tested in a real way.  Roster Resource projects 4 (JD Martinez, Trayce Thompson, Miguel Rojas, and David Peralta) of the 9 batters to have a WAR less than 2, the threshold for what is considered league average. One of the players not included in this group is rookie 2B Miguel Vargas who fractured his pinky finger in early in spring and was still playing but instructed not to swing at any pitches until medically cleared. 

The pitching staff will miss starter Walker Buehler who had Tommy John surgery last August and relivers JP Feyereisen and Blake Treinen who had shoulder surgery and Daniel Hudson who had knee surgery. 

Pick: Padres to win NL West +120

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