Nelly’s | 2023 MLB Futures | March 28

The 2023 MLB season is starting Thursday and Nelly’s is ready for a huge campaign with some big changes ahead.

Check out our 2023 MLB Preview with team win total over/under selections.

Braves general manager, Alex Anthopolous, either knows Jedi-level mind control, has dirt on all of his players, or created a magnetic clubhouse culture. Irrespective of what superpowers he may or may not have, the core of players he’s locked up (well below market value no less) is the envy of every team.

The Braves enter 2023 off the heels of a 101-win season and a 5^th straight division title in the unquestioned toughest division in baseball. They accomplished this despite losing their best player and team leader in Freddie Freeman the year before, and will look to repeat the feat again after Dansby Swanson signed with the Chicago Cubs.  This success came with 2x All-Star Ozzie Albies on playing 64 games and Ronald Acuna Jr. missing over 40 games and clearly still recovering from ACL surgery performed in July 2021. 

Their reemergence could realistically result in the Braves having the best offense. Austin Riley and Matt Olson finished in the top-10 in MVP voting in 2022 and 2021 respectively. Michael Harris is the reigning rookie of year, and Sean Murphy put up 5.1 WAR last year; a total good for second in baseball.  

The rotation will be led by Max Fried who finished second in Cy Young voting last year and Spencer Strider who broke the rookie record for strikeouts in a single season with 202 despite just 131.2 IP. Charlie Morton will provide proven veteran leadership to go with a projected ERA under 4, and Kyle Wright looks to be fulfilling his potential as a top-5 overall draft pick after a top-10 finish in Cy Young voting. The battle for the 5^th spot will likely go to another first round draft pick in Jared Shuster or Ian Anderson whose 35.2 postseason IP resulting in a 1.26 ERA and an average of more than a strikeout per inning.

Proven relievers AJ Minter, Joe Jimenez, and Colin McHugh will serve as the bridge to closer Raisel Iglesais, who allowed just 2 runs in 26.1 innings after coming over from the Angels in a trade.  Lefties Dylan Lee and Lucas Luetge can get hitters from both sides of the plate out. The biggest question marks will be two former stars who’ve battled injuries, Nick Anderson and Kirby Yates.  If either can regain a fraction of their greatness from 2019 (both averaged over 15 K/9 and Yates had 41 saves and 1.19 ERA), the Braves would be thrilled. 

Fangraphs gives the Braves a 15.5 % to win it all this year; the highest odds of any team and 25% higher than the next highest team (San Diego).  At +900, there’s real value here as the Fangraph’s odds suggest the number should be closer to +545. 

Pick: Braves to win World Series +900, Braves to win NL East +140