Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | March 17

Nelly’s is off to a 3-1 start in the NCAA Tournament – check out a daytime pick Friday or an evening 2-for-1 offer!

We are on a 31-17 run in all basketball picks the past three weeks!

Free Pick Friday: #775 Iona +9.5 over Connecticut 3:30 PM CT

Connecticut is deserving of a being a popular Final Four prediction out of the loaded West region but much of the great statistical profile for the Huskies stems from an amazing five-game run early in the season beating Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Florida in succession. Since December 31 Connecticut is only 10-8, going 4-6 vs. NCAA Tournament teams. Dan Hurley’s team has improved in record the past two seasons but has been eliminated in the Round of 64 each of the past two seasons with ugly offensive outputs of 54 and 63 points in upset losses even while entering the tournament with a popular sleeper designation. Connecticut is a rare team with top 20 offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but this is a team that struggles with turnovers and is reliant on 3-point shooting, even while not an elite outside shooting team. Much of the defensive rating stems from allowing only 30 percent on 3-point shots for a top 15 mark nationally but 3-point defense has an element of randomness and has not proven overly predictive in March. Iona is 27-7 and only two losses all season came by more than 10 points. Playing the Metro Atlantic is not the same as the Big East but the Gaels had two non-conference wins over NCAA Tournament teams and five top 150 non-conference wins in eight tries. Iona has great turnover rates on both sides of the ball and is a top 75 offense and defense for solid balance. Iona has more size than you might expect with Nelly Junior Joseph and Osborn Shema and the Gaels are in a favorable venue in their home state. Rick Pitino also owns a 53-18 NCAA Tournament record in his career and this year’s team looks stronger than his team two years ago that competed well against Alabama in a 15/2 draw. Iona will get quality shots and won’t beat itself with turnovers and the Huskies haven’t looked like the team that started 14-0 very often in recent weeks while having a cloud of tournament failures that could creep in mentally if this game stays close early.