Free Pick Friday, July 29

#957/958 OVER 8.5 Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves 6:20 PM CT

Arizona has quietly been on an offensive tear since the All-Star break, including posting a .791 team OPS over the past two weeks. On the current 5-1 run since the break Arizona has scored at least three runs in every game while reaching at least seven runs four times. Arizona faces a tough pairing with Kyle Wright on the mound, but Wright has been an overachiever to some extent, getting by with an ERA significantly lower than his ERA estimators. Wright also has not been quite as sharp in his home starts this season and has seen his numbers slowly climb since a 1.13 ERA in the first month of the season. Atlanta’s opportunity at the plate tonight should be exceptional as the Braves own a .781 season OPS vs. left-handed pitching. In the past 10 games the Braves are batting .295 with 6.5 runs per game on average vs. left-handers. Madison Bumgarner has a respectable 3.71 ERA but with a 4.70 xFIP and very low strikeout counts. Bumgarner has allowed at least three runs in eight of his last 13 starts and he took a loss at home to Atlanta in June. The Atlanta bullpen has had recent challenges with a 4.55 ERA in the past 10 games and there has been an average of 10.3 runs per game in the past seven meetings between these teams. Arizona road games have leaned ‘over’ this season while Truist Park home games have also leaned to the ‘over’ and with the figure dropping from the key number of 9 to 8.5, the ‘over’ is enticing with Wright and Bumgarner both featuring better numbers than deserved and both lineups in favorable matchups and recent form.

Check out 2-game packages in MLB for Friday night from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton!