Posted on

Week 3 NFL Close Calls

NFL Close Calls – Week 3

09/29/2020

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.

New England Patriots (-7) 36, Las Vegas Raiders 20 (47): After falling just short in Week 2, the Patriots were caught in a tight game in the first half leading by three after both teams put together touchdowns in the final minute of the 2nd quarter. While those points spoiled a spectacular ‘under’ pace, only 10 points were added in the third and the Raiders could only muster a field goal after a long drive into the fourth quarter putting the scoring at 36. New England would go 86 yards and burn more than six minutes before effectively clinching the win with a 29-13 advantage. A penalty on the kickoff return would pin the Raiders deep and they fumbled on first down, taken in for a Patriots touchdown to seal the ‘over’ as well. The Raiders would add a late touchdown as well for 56 points including 20 in the final 5:17 of game clock.

Buffalo Bills (-2) 35, Los Angeles Rams (46½): The ultimate ‘under’ team last season the Bills have changed course this season and scored three touchdowns in the first half for the early edge vs. the Rams. Buffalo scored first after the break as well to take a 28-3 edge, a now an infamous score in recent NFL history. The Rams would do their best impression of Buffalo’s AFC East rival putting four consecutive touchdowns together, the last of which came on a short field after an Aaron Donald sack and fumble recovery against Josh Allen. The following touchdown came with 4:30 to go putting the Rams ahead 35-32 with a remarkable comeback completed. Allen would convert a 3rd-and-22 and moved Buffalo into the red zone however. The rising MVP candidate would then take his second big penalty in the game with a face mask call pushing the Bills back to the 30-yard line and eventually facing 4th-and-8 with 25 seconds to go. Allen and the Bills were bailed out with a tough pass interference call on the Rams and Buffalo connected for the game-winning touchdown and spread covering extra-point with 15 seconds to go.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½) 28, Houston Texans 21 (46½): The Texans seemed to be in control of this game up 14-3 and the Steelers were facing 3rd-and-goal from the 10-yard-line after an intentional grounding call. Ben Roethlisberger would deliver the touchdown pass to get the Steelers back within four and both teams would add another touchdown before halftime for a surprisingly high scoring first half. Pittsburgh would climb within one with a field goal out of the break before four straight punts were exchanged without a single first down. Early in the fourth quarter still leading by one Houston was across midfield, but Deshaun Watson wound up intercepted at the 13-yard-line. Pittsburgh converted a pair of third downs and marched down the field for a seven-minute drive to take the lead. Up five Pittsburgh went for two and succeeded and Houston’s next possession featured a sack and a false start to leave 3rd-and-26. After picking up more than half that yardage Houston surprisingly punted, and never saw the ball again.

San Francisco (-3) 36, New York Giants 9 (43½): This game was closer than the final score and nearly 2-to-1 production edges indicate. It was 6-6 until 67 seconds to go before halftime as the 49ers would score 10 points before the break, making the most of an interception. The Giants scored out of the break to cut the score to 16-9 after a field goal on a lengthy drive and the ‘under’ pace seemed secure. San Francisco would score a pair of touchdowns over the next five minutes to seal the outcome leading 29-9 early in the fourth quarter. Nick Mullens and Jeff Wilson would star on a 92-yard touchdown drive culminating in a touchdown to push the total ‘over’ with just over three minutes to go.

Tennessee Titans (-2½) 31, Minnesota Vikings 30 (43½): While both teams moved the ball successfully the scoring was mostly limited to field goals early in this game with a 17-12 Vikings edge nearly midway through the third quarter. Minnesota appeared to break the game open with a 71-yard touchdown for rookie Justin Jefferson but the Titans would score a pair of touchdowns in the final four minutes of the third quarter to secure the ‘over’ and put Tennessee in front by one, missing on the two-point attempt. Minnesota would score early in the fourth to lead by five, also unable to get the conversion. The struggling Minnesota defense would hold on the next Titans drive, with Tennessee opting for and getting a 54-yard field goal to trail by two, keeping both spread outcomes in play for the final six minutes. Minnesota had two penalties and was unable to put the game away on its next possession and for the third straight week the Titans delivered a late kick to go in front as Stephen Gostkowski again hit from long range. While Minnesota remained in range to cover they seemed more of a threat to allow another score than to go back in front on a disastrous final drive that resulted in a Kirk Cousins interception on 4th-and-26 after he had earlier fumbled on the drive.

Cleveland Browns (-7) 34, Washington Football Team 20 (45): Cleveland led 17-7 at halftime but Washington would storm back in the third quarter with consecutive touchdown drives, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth as a touchdown underdog. After two negative drives to start the second half the Browns converted a big 3rd-and-12 at the end of the third quarter and found the end zone with 11 minutes to go to lead by four. An interception followed as Cleveland put in another touchdown three plays later putting Cleveland up 11. Washington had its fifth turnover of the game on the next possession across midfield to spoil any chances of climbing back within the number and the Browns would add a field goal to complete a rare 2-1 start in Cleveland.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5½) 23, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (47): After a scoreless first quarter the Eagles completed a busy second quarter with a long pass for a touchdown with 16 seconds to go before halftime to lead 13-10. The Bengals would go in front 17-16 with a touchdown late in the third quarter as the total sat at 33. Cincinnati stalled on a pair of drives and settled for field goals to lead 23-16 but after some disastrous moments, Carson Wentz put together the tying drive in the final three minutes, scoring himself on a seven-yard scramble with 21 seconds to go. Those on the ‘under’ seemed doomed while underdog ticket holders sweated but neither offense generated a significant scoring threat over three possessions each in overtime. On its second overtime drive the Eagles did reach the Cincinnati 43-yard-line but then had penalties on two of the next three plays as for a pair of winless teams, a tie seemed to be a favorable result.

Chicago Bears (+2½) 30, Atlanta Falcons 26 (46): After an unfathomable collapse in Week 2 the Falcons didn’t come out flat, they quickly jumped out to a 16-3 lead though the Bears were able to score before halftime to stay in the game. Mitchell Trubisky threw an interception on Chicago’s first second half possession and was replaced by Nick Foles, who also ended his first drive with an interception, though he led the Bears into scoring range. Atlanta added 10 points in the third quarter and led 26-10, where the score remained after missing a field goal early in the fourth quarter. A Bears comeback didn’t seem possible after a 4th-and-goal touchdown was lost on replay review. Still up 16, Atlanta had a 3-and-out to give the Bears the ball back with nine minutes to go. Foles converted a 4th down in Chicago territory and the Bears would eventually find the end zone but remained down two scores with a failed conversion. The Falcons again punted after picking up only one yard and the Bears struck quickly with a 55-yard touchdown drive in just three plays, suddenly down only three. Atlanta went backwards and handed the Bears extra yardage with a penalty on the punt as the Bears needed only 44 yards to complete the comeback, with Foles hitting Anthony Miller just after the two-minute warning. Atlanta crossed midfield before Matt Ryan was intercepted as the Falcons managed to out-do themselves again with another 4th quarter meltdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) 28, Denver Broncos 10 (42½): The Buccaneers jumped in front early in Denver and with a 23-3 lead late in the second quarter the outcome seemed secure. The Broncos would score in the final seconds before halftime to make it a 33-point first half as the ‘over’ also seemed inevitable. The Buccaneers notched a safety early in the third quarter but had an illegal block on the return to give up the favorable field position. Denver would have the next scoring threat but threw an interception near midfield and the Buccaneers added three points at the end of the quarter to put the scoring at 38. Both teams punted on fourth quarter possessions, but Denver looked like they would help those on the ‘over’ with a drive to the Tampa Bay 16-yard-line. Eventually facing 4th-and-1 the Broncos were stuffed and Tampa Bay was able run out the remaining clock to keep the total ‘under’.

Seattle Seahawks (-5½) 38, Dallas Cowboys 31 (57½): The afternoon showcase between prominent NFC teams lived up to its billing as while Seattle seemed to have control with a 30-15 edge early in the third quarter following a Dallas fumble, the Cowboys would rally back. Dallas touchdown drives of 94 and 89 yards put the Cowboys within two early in the fourth quarter but they were not able to tie the game going for two with still more than 13 minutes remaining. The high total was already cleared when Dallas did take the lead on a 42-yard Greg Zuerlein field goal to close a 16-play drive with Zuerlein having missed two extra-points earlier in the game. Leading by one as a healthy underdog Dallas was in a favorable position, even after Seattle converted a 4th-and-3 just across midfield. Facing 3rd-and-3 in field goal range Dallas just needed one stop to seal the cover but Russell Wilson hit DK Metcalf for a 29-yard touchdown. To the horror of Dallas backers the Seahawks also connected on the two-point conversion to suddenly lead by seven. Dallas had moved the ball with ease the entire game and still had all three timeouts, but time was running short with the Cowboys reaching a 1st down at the Seattle 22-yard-line. Dak Prescott was sacked on 2nd down and Dallas used its final timeout with 16 seconds to go. Prescott would break free from pressure and heave to the end zone on a broken play on 3rd down, predictably ending with an interception as Seattle again escaped with a win.

Green Bay Packers (+3½) 37, New Orleans Saints 30 (51½): This was a back-and-forth game, but the critical sequence came early in the fourth quarter with a 27-27 tie. The Packers went for it on 4th-and-1 and initially were given a new set of downs, but a New Orleans challenge was successful. With the ball and some momentum after the stop the Saints would give it right back on 2nd-and-3 near field goal range with a Taysom Hill fumble. New Orleans held the Packers to a field goal as a touchdown would still get the job done for Saints backers down three, but New Orleans was forced to punt with under seven minutes remaining. Green Bay was in scoring range quickly but got a big 3rd down converted via penalty and eventually found the end zone at the two-minute warning to lead by 10. The Saints would add a field goal late, but Green Bay delivered Sunday night to stay on top of the NFC.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3½) 34, Baltimore Ravens 20 (55): The Chiefs took command quickly Monday night but a kickoff return touchdown kept Baltimore in the game, as did a missed field goal at halftime for the Chiefs for a 27-10 advantage. The ‘over’ pace was strong at that point, but the Ravens got stops in the third quarter and only three points were added. Early in the fourth Baltimore suddenly found itself within a score, taking advantage of a short field after the Chiefs failed on 4th-and-1. Hopes for a comeback faded quickly as the Chiefs faced only one third down on the way to another touchdown, going up by 14 and putting the scoring at 54 with still more than eight minutes remaining. The promising ‘over’ wound up not making it there however as field goals weren’t needed and both teams wound up missing on 4th down efforts in scoring range late in the game.

Posted on

Stanley Cup Finals 15* Best Bet

Join Bobby Dalton for Game 6 in the Stanley Cup Finals as Dallas and Tampa Bay face off coming off back-to-back overtime games!

Dalton also has action on Monday Night Football with another winning day in the NFL yesterday.

The Big E was a winner in yesterday’s 15* selection and he has a 10* Biggie for Monday as well:

Don’t miss the next issue of the Green Sheet coming out on Wednesday. Key Selections had a winning week and Rating 5 Keys are 2-0 this season.

Nelly’s also wrapped up a winning MLB regular season – the playoffs are starting on Tuesday! The NBA Finals start Wednesday coming off a good third round adding to our highly profitable basketball season!

Posted on

NFL Week 3 Options

Bobby Dalton started Week 3 with a winning pick on Miami adding to a great September track record – most won with his big play yesterday and he has hit 62.5% so far in NFL picks. Get an EARLY TRIPS-2-WIN NFL OFFER for Sunday’s schedule for $24!

Nelly’s went 3-0 in our Week 1 2/3 offer and we’ve had a productive football September. Join us for Sunday’s 2/3 GUARANTEE featuring a pair of 2* selections for $25!

Point Train also won Thursday night to start week 3 and has a 3-Pack of picks with two totals for Sunday!

The Big E is featuring his first 15* of the NFL Season with his September Game of the Month for $15.94!

Maximum Sports is 9-3 in the NFL with back-to-back 4-1 Sundays and a 2-0 record on Monday Nights. Get his 60% Guarantee for Sunday with five selections, looking to add to a 5-0 record in his higher rated 5* picks!

FREE PICK FROM THE GREEN SHEET NEWSLETTER:

#463 LA Rams +2 over Buffalo Bills 12:00 PM CT
One of these squads will leave week 3 with a 3-0 record. Many saw big things ahead for Buffalo but the path for the Bills in the first two weeks was certainly favorable. The Rams have been one of the NFC’s top teams the past three years but were a bit of an afterthought in the loaded NFC West for most. The wins for the Rams have come against high profile foes but both were also NFC East teams that struggled last season. Philadelphia took a depleted roster into last week’s game and turnovers helped the cause. Opponents have rushed successfully against the Rams but so far the Bills have allowed Josh Allen to throw, the current surprise leader in passing yards league-wide so far. The Rams will have to make the trip east in back-to-back weeks as the Covid situation didn’t allow the team to stay on the East coast following last week’s game in Philadelphia. The Rams have some injuries to work around this week but so far have been one of the most impressive performers of the season.

Posted on

Free NCAA Pick Saturday

Below is a Free College Pick from this week’s Green Sheet Newsletter, get the issue plus five phone picks in our Half-Price Weekend Offer as we look to build on a terrific start to the season, 11-2 overall in our recommendations.

419 Florida -14 over Ole Miss 11 AM CT

LAST MEETING: 2015 @Florida (+7½) 38 Mississippi 10

SERIES HISTORY: Florida is 7-4 S/U & 5-6 ATS since 1980

A 38-10 Florida win in the last meeting isn’t a surprise but one does a double take seeing a home underdog price for the Gators. That was a matchup of 4-0 teams and Ole Miss was #3 in the nation. Despite being in the same conference, that is the only meeting between these schools since 2008. Lane Kiffin will be making his Oxford debut and he hasn’t announced how the snaps will be split between returning QBs Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee. Kyle Trask is back for the Gators filling in admirably last season and boosting the Florida offense. Florida also has several promising options to throw to and they will face a Ole Miss defense that was at the bottom of the SEC last season. Florida has some pieces to replace on defense but Dan Mullen has added a few transfers to complete the roster as it should be an above average even if not likely to match last season’s 14.4 points per game allowed pace. Florida should have an edge in the opener.

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton has released his first 15* BEST BET of the season for EARLY SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL – join the Big Dog as he looked to add to an 11-3 15* NCAA run in September since 2005!

Check out other great offers for the football weekend from our featured handicappers as well:

Posted on

Half-Price Weekend Offer

Nelly’s had turned in a great start to the football season, 11-2 overall including 7-2 in rated picks. We’ve been perfect in college football and we have an EARLY PICK SATURDAY plus a higher rated 2* SHOWCASE GAME Saturday Night in guaranteed offers. We also have our famous NFL 2/3 GUARANTEE going for NFL Week 3, already posting a 3-0 sweep once this season.

As a special offer this week we’ve got our Weekend Package for Half Price this week – only $30 getting you those five rated picks, a copy of this week’s Green Sheet and a possible pick or opinion to come for Monday’s big AFC game.

Nelly’s has also enjoyed excellent recent runs in MLB and the NBA with picks set for Friday!

Keep posted for a FREE PICK later today!

Check out Bobby Dalton’s Stanley Cup Finals Offer and don’t miss a BEST BET in MLB action. Dalton won in the NFL last night with the Dolphins and is expecting a college football 15* BEST BET Saturday, riding an 11-3 run in September 15* picks.

Point Train won Thursday night as well and is featuring a LATE NIGHT PICK for Saturday college football!

Big E won his first big play of the season last week with a 20* in the ACC – he has his first 15* NFL Pick set for Week 3.

Maximum Sports has been red hot in the NFL at 9-3, don’t miss his 60% Guarantee this week!

Posted on

NFL Close Calls – Week 2

NFL Close Calls – Week 2

09/22/2020

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Cleveland Browns (-5½) 35, Cincinnati Bengals 30 (44½): A 24-point 2nd quarter put the Thursday night game on a clear ‘over’ pace but the Browns were barely past the favorite spread with an eight-point edge at halftime. Cincinnati seemed to a get huge swing of momentum stuffing the Browns on 4th-and-goal on the opening drive of the 2nd half but rookie QB Joe Burrow would fumble on a sack a few plays later, handing the Browns another red zone chance and this time Cleveland delivered. Cincinnati would add a field goal to trail by 12 and the defense again delivered with an interception when it looked like Cleveland would add points. Burrow led a 14-play drive to put the Bengals within five with just under six minutes remaining. The underdog cover position was short-lived however as it took Cleveland just two minutes to answer, effectively putting the game away up by 12 at the 3:55 mark. Burrow impressed on another long drive that included two 4th down conversions, eventually connecting for a touchdown inside the final minute on a 3rd-and-long play to take back the spread result for the underdog.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) 31, Carolina Panthers 17 (47): The 0-2 Panthers are proving to have a lot of fourth quarter life losing in Week 1 in a back-and-forth final frame and also rallying vs. Tampa Bay after falling behind 21-0. Christian McCaffrey added two touchdowns before getting hurt to cut the score to 21-14 early in the fourth. The Panthers got the ball right back but Teddy Bridgewater had an interception across midfield. Tampa Bay only added three points off the turnover however and Carolina cut the margin back to seven just after the two-minute warning with its own field goal, which was enough to sit within the underdog spread. The onside kick attempt failed and Leonard Fournette rushed for 46 yards and a score on 1st down, putting the Buccaneers up by 14 and clearing the closing total that opened as high as 48½ before sliding to 47. Those laying the points with the Buccaneers didn’t have an easy viewing the rest of the way as Bridgewater had quick completions of 22 and 14 yards to cross midfield with still more than a minute to go. Carolina eventually reached the Tampa Bay 18 and the game’s final play didn’t quite get there with a 14-yard gain stopped around the 4-yard-line to keep the Panthers from stealing the cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6½) 26, Denver Broncos 21 (40½): The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime and Denver was down to Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos added 11 points in the third quarter and to stay in the game but the Steelers had a strong start to the fourth, completing a touchdown drive and getting a safety to lead by 12 with about 10 minutes to go. Getting the ball back after the safety, Pittsburgh fumbled on first down however and the Broncos delivered with a Melvin Gordon touchdown about halfway through the final quarter. Down by five, Denver’s defense held for a quick punt and Driskel appeared poised to deliver a game-winning drive for the Broncos, getting a big completion to the Pittsburgh 23-yard-line that withstood a replay challenge. Facing 4th-and-2 Driskel was sacked to thwart the upset and those on the favorite had a fleeting opportunity for a late cover with James Conner breaking a 59-yard rush to the Denver 10. Denver only had two timeouts remaining and the Steelers were able to run out the clock, eventually taking a knee at the 6-yard-line.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) 40, Atlanta Falcons 39 (53½): The fourth quarter didn’t change the spread or total results in this NFC clash but it is worth reminding everyone that the same team that recently lost the Super Bowl with a 28-3 lead was leading 39-24 with five minutes to go in a NFL game and lost. Those taking Atlanta plus the points watched in horror after the incredible onside kick recovery as the prospect of a Dallas win and cover was back in play as Dallas had a healthy 1:49 to work with down two. After the big 2nd down gain the Cowboys played for the field goal and successfully pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history.

Buffalo Bills (-5½) 31, Miami Dolphins 28 (42): Buffalo jumped out to a 17-7 lead but Miami took control in the middle of the game, delivering 13 consecutive points on three scoring drives, each of fewer than 50 yards, to take a 20-17 lead with about 10 minutes remaining. Over two drives surrounding a punt Josh Allen needed only 12 combined plays for two touchdown drives of more than 70 yards as the Bulls were up by 11 with just three minutes remaining. Miami didn’t even face a 3rd down against a relaxed defense and connected in the final minute to spoil the spread result, getting the two-point conversion for good measure in the three-point final result.

Chicago Bears (-5) 17, New York Giants 13 (42½): After needing a big comeback in Week 1 the Bears took a 17-0 lead over the Giants at halftime. Even with significant injuries for New York, the Bears weren’t able to coast for a win as four second half drives ended in a pair of interceptions, a punt, and a missed field goal. New York was down 17-10 before Mitchell Trubisky’s second interception set the Giants up in decent field position. With about 10 minutes remaining Chicago almost put the game away with a pick-6 but it was called back for pass interference. The Giants would stall at the Chicago 19 and kicked a field goal with still more than seven minutes remaining to trail by four. Chicago had a chance to push the margin back to seven points to go back in position to cover but Cairo Santos missed the field goal try. New York had a great opportunity to steal the win, converting two fourth downs along the way but eventually ended the game on the 10-yard-line as the Bears moved to 2-0 with a second straight narrow escape.

Tennessee Titans (-7½) 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 30 (44½): The Jaguars trailed 30-17 through three quarters but completed a 75-yard drive early in the fourth and forced a quick three-and-out. Jacksonville went 86 yards to tie the game halfway through the final frame with another big performance from Gardner Minshew. A pair of punts followed, and getting the ball back in good field position with just over three minutes to go the Titans were able to add three points to go in front, aided greatly with a big 3rd down conversion via penalty. Minshew was intercepted on a short pass on a 2nd-and-1 play in the final minute as the Titans held on but Jacksonville did enough for a second straight underdog win to start the season.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 35, New England Patriots 30 (45): The Patriots opened the game with an early pick-6 but Russell Wilson rebounded nicely ultimately posting five touchdown passes even though the Seahawks only twice entered the red zone in the game. Seattle pulled away in the third quarter with back-to-back scores around a Cam Newton interception to lead by 11 but the Patriots answered early in the fourth quarter. Down five, New England went for two and came up short in a key play relative to the spread outcome. With just over four minutes remaining Seattle seemed to put the game away with a big 3rd down conversion and two plays later a touchdown to lead by 12. The Patriots answered quickly however and were able to get the ball back after the Seahawks tried to throw deep on 3rd-and-1. The Patriots put together a great final drive but opted not to call their final timeout after a connection to the Seattle 13-yard-line, leaving only 12 seconds on the clock by the time they got the ball snapped. After Julian Edelman couldn’t haul in a throw to the end zone, the Patriots reached the 1-yard-line on the next play and used the final timeout setting up the expected final play. Newton’s charge to the goal line was blown up as Seattle came away with the win and narrow cover in another entertaining edition between these teams and Hall of Fame coaches.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4) 34, New Orleans Saints 24 (48): The line on the Monday night game shot downward Monday afternoon but the Saints opened up a 10-0 lead looking to move to 2-0 again considered by many a top NFC contender. Opening its new stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders rallied for a tie score by halftime and took the lead early in the 3rd quarter. The Saints punted on their first two possessions of the second half while the Raiders lost a fumble to keep the scoring at 41 well into the fourth quarter as the only drama that remained was on the total. The Saints would find the end zone with about four minutes remaining to trail by seven and the scoring hit 48, the closing total but with most sitting with tickets slightly above that with the number gradually sliding from an opening price of 50½. A pass interference penalty converted a big 3rd down for the Raiders just ahead of the two-minute warning and the Raiders would face a decision up by seven with just over a minute to go on 4th-and-long. They opted for a risky 54-yard field goal attempt and Daniel Carlson delivered to seal the upset, as well as hitting the ‘over’.

Posted on

Monday All-In Opportunity

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton is on a 24-14 MLB run since Sep. 1, he’s won 66.7% of his football selections, and he is coming off a 2-0 NHL night to close the conference Finals.

Win in a unique all-sport ALL-IN Monday Opportunity with picks in NFL, NHL, and MLB action – including two 10* Best Bets! Get all three picks for $25 in a special offer from the Big Dog Bobby Dalton!

Nelly’s is 7-2 in rated picks and 10-2 overall in football recommendations so far – don’t miss our next possible selections next week. Nelly’s does have a baseball Profit Machine pick for Monday coming off a Sunday winner and a 20-12 run on the diamond since mid-August.

Maximum Sports has posted a huge start to the NFL season at 8-3, including 4-0 in higher rated 5* picks. Don’t miss his MNF selection for Saints/Raiders for $20!

Green Sheet Issue #10 will be sent out by Wednesday afternoon – Rating 5 & 4 Keys are 2-0 this season!

Posted on

NFL Week 2 Sunday – Great Results so far!

Nelly’s added another winner yesterday to keep our perfect football start going at 6-0 for our phone service. Last week’s NFL 2/3 offer went 3-0 with three underdogs all winning outright – get our Week 2 picks for just $25 2/3 Guaranteed!

Nelly’s Baseball is on an excellent 19-12 run and we have a great DAYTIME TOTAL for Sunday only $15! We’ll also hope to deliver in the NBA Playoffs Sunday as well on a busy sports day!

Considering joining Nelly’s for our FULL SEASON PACKAGE or our SEP/OCT OFFER for the Football Season!

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton is also off to a perfect 3-0 start in the NFL and he added a 7star winner in NCAA action yesterday. Get his TRIPS-2-WIN Sunday NFL 2/3 featuring 10, 7, and 5-star picks in his Sunday Set for $29!

Dalton is also releasing regular selections in MLB & NBA action, riding a current 23-12 run in MLB picks since Sep. 1!

Point Train has released its first big play of the season with a NFL GAME OF THE MONTH for $29.97!

Maximum Sports turned in a 5-1 Week 1 in the NFL – get his 60% GUARANTEE in his Week 2 5-Game Offer for $30!

The Big E is 1-0 in his 20* picks with an ACC winner on Saturday and he is 10-6 overall this season – check out today’s NFL BIGGIE!

FREE NFL PICK SUNDAY FROM THIS WEEK’s GREEN SHEET:

#280 Tennessee Titans -7.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 PM CT

The Jaguars dealt several stars in the weeks before the season but wound up victors in Week 1. Gardner Minshew had just one incomplete pass while throwing three touchdowns to lead a comeback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville was outgained 445-241 as it was a fortunate result but catching an extra day on the turnaround while the Titans are in Denver late Monday night is a favorable set-up. Tennessee barely won that game with four missed kicks from veteran Stephen Gostkowski to leave 10 points on the field. Derrick Henry compiled solid numbers as Tennessee moved the ball conservatively, posting only 4.8 yards per play. This is a rare favorite price for the Titans but Tennessee did produce several lopsided wins after Ryan Tannehill took over last season. Posting 26 first downs against a top tier defense last week was a solid result and the Titans will be less dependent on the passing game than the Colts had to be last week.

Get the Green Sheet weekly for $12 or join for the entire season subscription!

Posted on

Free Pick Saturday

#127 Texas State -3 over UL-Monroe 6:30 PM CT

Texas State went just 3-9 last season in a major transition season for Jake Spatival. The Bobcats are 0-2 already this season and the roster has faced challenges, needing to use two different quarterbacks already while also getting several players ruled out each week. Texas State is playing a third game in three weeks and this is the first road game of the season for the Bobcats who have impressed with improvement on offense despite still being winless. Losing by just seven vs. SMU Texas State put up 416 yards and were in a tight one-score game almost the entire way vs. a top AAC threat with a veteran quarterback. The Bobcats posted nearly 500 yards last week but lost in overtime with a 2-0 turnover deficit.

Either Tyler Vitt or Brady McBride is capable of leading this offense and Brock Sturges and Calvin Hill have offered early promise in the backfield. UL-Monroe lost 37-7 last week and it could have been worse with only one scoring drive allowed in the fourth quarter vs. Army. The defense was expected to struggle but the offense provided minimal production posting 1.9 yards per rush and completing only 16 passes. The Warhawks won by 10 in San Marcos last season but it was a three-point game until the final two minutes and Monroe no longer can lean on long-time starter Caleb Evans at QB.

In three seasons Colby Suits has a combined total of only 28 completions as he has limited live game experience in this offense. Texas State was a significant favorite last week and will again be laying points this week at a similar number, this time on the road. The Bobcats are actually 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 road games despite few S/U wins while Matt Viator’s team has nine S/U home losses in his four seasons with Monroe, going 5-16 ATS since taking over in 2016.

Nelly’s Football is off to a perfect start to the season with our rated picks at 5-0. Don’t miss our NFL 2/3 Offer for $25, a 3-0 sweep in Week 1 with three underdogs that each won outright. You can join Nelly’s for the next seven weeks of football service for $279. 


Check out our preview of one of the big games this weekend in the ACC as Louisville hosts Miami. The Big E is featuring his first 20* Conference GOY this week in the ACC – check it out for $20.94 pay after you win!


The Big Dog Bobby Dalton will be ready for another big week in the NFL this weekend having gone 3-0 in NFL Week 1. Dalton has posted a 7star for college football Saturday night!

Posted on

ACC Spotlight – Miami at Louisville

Saturday College Football – Miami, FL at Louisville

After getting a taste of college football the past two weeks, things will heat up in conference play in the final two weeks of September. One of the biggest games of the weekend is a contest in the ACC between Miami and Louisville. Both teams had some positives in their first seasons under new coaches last year and the victor of this game could emerge as a sleeper in the ACC race.

Match-up: Miami, FL Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals

Venue: At Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky ~30% Capacity Open ~18,000)

Time/TV: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET ABC

Line: Louisville -2½ Over/Under 64½

Last Meeting: November 2019 @Miami (-7) 52, Louisville 27

Miami and Louisville both are 1-0 with wins vs. Conference USA teams ahead of this ACC opener with the Hurricanes winning against UAB last Thursday and Louisville pulling away from Western Kentucky. Miami won convincingly in this series last season, which was the first meeting since 2014. These teams are both former Big East programs though their time in the league did not coincide.

Manny Diaz was born in Miami but attended Florida State, where he also started his coaching career. He has bounced around several schools in the past two decades before landing at Miami as Mark Richt’s defensive coordinator for three seasons starting in 2016. He accepted the Temple head coaching job following Miami’s 2018 season but after Richt retired he returned to the Hurricanes. His first season was an inconsistent journey to 6-7; delivering quality wins over Virginia, Pittsburgh, and in this matchup but also suffering losses to Georgia Tech, Florida International, and a shutout bowl loss to Louisiana Tech.

Diaz lured two high profile transfers to Miami this off-season with former Houston quarterback D’Eriq King and Temple DE Quincy Roche though the headlines were negative on that front this week as CB Christian Williams announced his departure out of Miami after last week’s win. Quarterback play was quite erratic for Miami last season and King was productive in the opener in the air and on the ground while Roche also made several impact plays for a defensive front that expects to be highly regarded in the ACC.

Miami led just 14-7 at halftime in the opener but pulled away with three touchdowns in the third quarter for a 31-14 win, posting a yardage edge of 495-285. Miami ran the ball effectively with 83 yards from King but also 134 on just 17 carries from Cam’Ron Harris with Miami compiling 337 rushing yards against one of the better Conference USA defenses. The Miami defense also played well against the run after a few sloppy plays early in the game, holding UAB to 3.1 yards per rush. There were some holes in the pass defense however and UAB likely would have had better numbers if not for an injury to their veteran quarterback.  

Playing on Thursday offers Miami a longer turnaround ahead of the ACC opener as Louisville’s opening win came last Saturday night. Hosting Western Kentucky as a nearly two-touchdown favorite, the Cardinals lost an early fumble and were down 7-0 not even three minutes into the game. Four unanswered touchdowns on mostly long drives put Louisville up 28-7 by halftime and the production edges were more substantial than the 35-21 final score with Louisville not adding points in the final 23 minutes of the game while comfortably ahead.

Scott Satterfield went 51-24 at Appalachian State leading the team in a successful move up to the FBS level while claiming three Sun Belt titles. He wasn’t the first choice with the opening at Louisville, but he turned in a solid season of improvement going 8-5 last season with a Music City Bowl win. Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic, though a 45-10 home loss to the Tigers painted a significant gap in the standings.

Micale Cunningham had an efficient season in 2019 with only five interceptions and over 2,000 yards passing as the Louisville quarterback. He did throw an interception in the opener but also had a career high of 343 passing yards as Western Kentucky’s defense is effective stopping the run. Satterfield’s offenses usually are run-heavy but being held to 3.8 yards per rush, Louisville took some shots downfield in the opener and hit a few big plays.

Louisville also had a good defensive showing after an inconsistent campaign in 2019. Louisville was among the worst run defenses in the nation last season allowing 5.6 yards per carry and eight times last season the Cardinals allowed 34 or more points. All five Louisville losses came by double-digits last season and the Cardinals didn’t deliver many quality wins with the best results at Wake Forest, home vs. Virginia, and in bowl action vs. Mississippi State.

The result Saturday will likely boil down to who performs better among the two star quarterbacks with both King and Cunningham deserving mention as Heisman candidates. King opened as low as 30/1 while Cunningham was around 100/1 this spring. King is now down to 9/1 at some outlets while Cunningham’s price has hit as low as 20/1. Both teams have a shot to produce a strong enough record to keep either in the conversation with a possible edge to Cunningham as Louisville doesn’t have to play Clemson in this season’s ACC free-for-all race.

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING:

Louisville is 5-2 S/U and ATS at home under Satterfield though the program is 23-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2007, only fitting that role three times last season coming off a 2-win 2018 campaign. Miami is just 9-14 ATS as an underdog since 2013 though going 3-0 ATS with two S/U wins last season under Diaz. Miami is 10-3-1 S/U all-time in this series since 1933 but just 1-6 ATS in this series with spread data back to 1984. Louisville had won and covered in three straight meetings before last season’s 52-27 win for Miami.

LAST SEASON:

Louisville played Clemson and Virginia in back-to-back weeks in late October, splitting those games before a bye week and the road trip to Miami. That situation seemed to favor the rested Cardinals as Miami was riding back-to-back road wins including defeating rival Florida State the previous week. Both teams had long scoring drives early in the game but Miami kept its offense going with a 35-14 lead by halftime. The final yardage favored Louisville 496-449 but the Cardinals lost three turnovers. Miami QB Jarren Williams threw six touchdowns while Miami rushed for 6.2 yards per carry in a convincing result. After scoring 52 vs. Louisville in what was the home finale, the Hurricanes would score only 41 points in the next three games combined, all losses to lesser teams than the Cardinals.

UP NEXT:

Miami has Florida State at home next Saturday in another Saturday night ABC game. Louisville’s next three games are spaced out over four weeks but will all be road games, at Pittsburgh, at Georgia Tech, and then at Notre Dame.