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Free Pick Saturday

#127 Texas State -3 over UL-Monroe 6:30 PM CT

Texas State went just 3-9 last season in a major transition season for Jake Spatival. The Bobcats are 0-2 already this season and the roster has faced challenges, needing to use two different quarterbacks already while also getting several players ruled out each week. Texas State is playing a third game in three weeks and this is the first road game of the season for the Bobcats who have impressed with improvement on offense despite still being winless. Losing by just seven vs. SMU Texas State put up 416 yards and were in a tight one-score game almost the entire way vs. a top AAC threat with a veteran quarterback. The Bobcats posted nearly 500 yards last week but lost in overtime with a 2-0 turnover deficit.

Either Tyler Vitt or Brady McBride is capable of leading this offense and Brock Sturges and Calvin Hill have offered early promise in the backfield. UL-Monroe lost 37-7 last week and it could have been worse with only one scoring drive allowed in the fourth quarter vs. Army. The defense was expected to struggle but the offense provided minimal production posting 1.9 yards per rush and completing only 16 passes. The Warhawks won by 10 in San Marcos last season but it was a three-point game until the final two minutes and Monroe no longer can lean on long-time starter Caleb Evans at QB.

In three seasons Colby Suits has a combined total of only 28 completions as he has limited live game experience in this offense. Texas State was a significant favorite last week and will again be laying points this week at a similar number, this time on the road. The Bobcats are actually 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 road games despite few S/U wins while Matt Viator’s team has nine S/U home losses in his four seasons with Monroe, going 5-16 ATS since taking over in 2016.

Nelly’s Football is off to a perfect start to the season with our rated picks at 5-0. Don’t miss our NFL 2/3 Offer for $25, a 3-0 sweep in Week 1 with three underdogs that each won outright. You can join Nelly’s for the next seven weeks of football service for $279. 


Check out our preview of one of the big games this weekend in the ACC as Louisville hosts Miami. The Big E is featuring his first 20* Conference GOY this week in the ACC – check it out for $20.94 pay after you win!


The Big Dog Bobby Dalton will be ready for another big week in the NFL this weekend having gone 3-0 in NFL Week 1. Dalton has posted a 7star for college football Saturday night!

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ACC Spotlight – Miami at Louisville

Saturday College Football – Miami, FL at Louisville

After getting a taste of college football the past two weeks, things will heat up in conference play in the final two weeks of September. One of the biggest games of the weekend is a contest in the ACC between Miami and Louisville. Both teams had some positives in their first seasons under new coaches last year and the victor of this game could emerge as a sleeper in the ACC race.

Match-up: Miami, FL Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals

Venue: At Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky ~30% Capacity Open ~18,000)

Time/TV: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET ABC

Line: Louisville -2½ Over/Under 64½

Last Meeting: November 2019 @Miami (-7) 52, Louisville 27

Miami and Louisville both are 1-0 with wins vs. Conference USA teams ahead of this ACC opener with the Hurricanes winning against UAB last Thursday and Louisville pulling away from Western Kentucky. Miami won convincingly in this series last season, which was the first meeting since 2014. These teams are both former Big East programs though their time in the league did not coincide.

Manny Diaz was born in Miami but attended Florida State, where he also started his coaching career. He has bounced around several schools in the past two decades before landing at Miami as Mark Richt’s defensive coordinator for three seasons starting in 2016. He accepted the Temple head coaching job following Miami’s 2018 season but after Richt retired he returned to the Hurricanes. His first season was an inconsistent journey to 6-7; delivering quality wins over Virginia, Pittsburgh, and in this matchup but also suffering losses to Georgia Tech, Florida International, and a shutout bowl loss to Louisiana Tech.

Diaz lured two high profile transfers to Miami this off-season with former Houston quarterback D’Eriq King and Temple DE Quincy Roche though the headlines were negative on that front this week as CB Christian Williams announced his departure out of Miami after last week’s win. Quarterback play was quite erratic for Miami last season and King was productive in the opener in the air and on the ground while Roche also made several impact plays for a defensive front that expects to be highly regarded in the ACC.

Miami led just 14-7 at halftime in the opener but pulled away with three touchdowns in the third quarter for a 31-14 win, posting a yardage edge of 495-285. Miami ran the ball effectively with 83 yards from King but also 134 on just 17 carries from Cam’Ron Harris with Miami compiling 337 rushing yards against one of the better Conference USA defenses. The Miami defense also played well against the run after a few sloppy plays early in the game, holding UAB to 3.1 yards per rush. There were some holes in the pass defense however and UAB likely would have had better numbers if not for an injury to their veteran quarterback.  

Playing on Thursday offers Miami a longer turnaround ahead of the ACC opener as Louisville’s opening win came last Saturday night. Hosting Western Kentucky as a nearly two-touchdown favorite, the Cardinals lost an early fumble and were down 7-0 not even three minutes into the game. Four unanswered touchdowns on mostly long drives put Louisville up 28-7 by halftime and the production edges were more substantial than the 35-21 final score with Louisville not adding points in the final 23 minutes of the game while comfortably ahead.

Scott Satterfield went 51-24 at Appalachian State leading the team in a successful move up to the FBS level while claiming three Sun Belt titles. He wasn’t the first choice with the opening at Louisville, but he turned in a solid season of improvement going 8-5 last season with a Music City Bowl win. Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic, though a 45-10 home loss to the Tigers painted a significant gap in the standings.

Micale Cunningham had an efficient season in 2019 with only five interceptions and over 2,000 yards passing as the Louisville quarterback. He did throw an interception in the opener but also had a career high of 343 passing yards as Western Kentucky’s defense is effective stopping the run. Satterfield’s offenses usually are run-heavy but being held to 3.8 yards per rush, Louisville took some shots downfield in the opener and hit a few big plays.

Louisville also had a good defensive showing after an inconsistent campaign in 2019. Louisville was among the worst run defenses in the nation last season allowing 5.6 yards per carry and eight times last season the Cardinals allowed 34 or more points. All five Louisville losses came by double-digits last season and the Cardinals didn’t deliver many quality wins with the best results at Wake Forest, home vs. Virginia, and in bowl action vs. Mississippi State.

The result Saturday will likely boil down to who performs better among the two star quarterbacks with both King and Cunningham deserving mention as Heisman candidates. King opened as low as 30/1 while Cunningham was around 100/1 this spring. King is now down to 9/1 at some outlets while Cunningham’s price has hit as low as 20/1. Both teams have a shot to produce a strong enough record to keep either in the conversation with a possible edge to Cunningham as Louisville doesn’t have to play Clemson in this season’s ACC free-for-all race.

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING:

Louisville is 5-2 S/U and ATS at home under Satterfield though the program is 23-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2007, only fitting that role three times last season coming off a 2-win 2018 campaign. Miami is just 9-14 ATS as an underdog since 2013 though going 3-0 ATS with two S/U wins last season under Diaz. Miami is 10-3-1 S/U all-time in this series since 1933 but just 1-6 ATS in this series with spread data back to 1984. Louisville had won and covered in three straight meetings before last season’s 52-27 win for Miami.

LAST SEASON:

Louisville played Clemson and Virginia in back-to-back weeks in late October, splitting those games before a bye week and the road trip to Miami. That situation seemed to favor the rested Cardinals as Miami was riding back-to-back road wins including defeating rival Florida State the previous week. Both teams had long scoring drives early in the game but Miami kept its offense going with a 35-14 lead by halftime. The final yardage favored Louisville 496-449 but the Cardinals lost three turnovers. Miami QB Jarren Williams threw six touchdowns while Miami rushed for 6.2 yards per carry in a convincing result. After scoring 52 vs. Louisville in what was the home finale, the Hurricanes would score only 41 points in the next three games combined, all losses to lesser teams than the Cardinals.

UP NEXT:

Miami has Florida State at home next Saturday in another Saturday night ABC game. Louisville’s next three games are spaced out over four weeks but will all be road games, at Pittsburgh, at Georgia Tech, and then at Notre Dame.

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Week 2 NFL starts Tonight!

Get our picks for this week in pro and college football in Green Sheet Issue #9 for just $12.

Nelly’s will look to build on a perfect start (5-0 in rated picks) for our phone service with our next update Friday – considering joining us for our September/October Package the next seven weeks.

Nelly’s Baseball is on a steady 17-11 run – join us for a TOTAL Thursday!

The Big is 4-2 in his 1U Biggie plays this season and he is involved in tonight’s AFC NORTH GAME – $9.94.

Bobby Dalton has a 10* and 7* in NHL Playoff Hockey tonight as well!

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Huge start to Football!

Nelly’s has turned in a perfect 5-0 football weekend with rated picks, going 2-0 in college and 3-0 in the NFL this weekend, coming off winning both unrated recommendations in the small opening schedule last week for a great start to the football season! We hit a double-digit underdog that won outright on Saturday and had three 2* NFL underdogs and all three also won outright!

Consider joining us for the FULL SEASON for the incredibly low price of only $500, which includes a full season Green Sheet subscription ($149 on its own). Or take advantage of a special offer for all picks now through November 2 for just $279 featuring SEVEN football weekends in our Sep/Oct Package.

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 in the NFL on Sunday including a 10* Best Bet winner and he is ready for Monday Night Football with a guaranteed 10* BEST BET offer to close down Week 1. Dalton also won a 10* in MLB action yesterday for a second straight winning week on the diamond and he has a BEST BET for Daytime Baseball Monday! Dalton is also keeping up with the NHL PLAYOFFS!

The Big E moved to 3-1 in NCAA Biggie plays while Maximum won 4 of 5 in his NFL Week 1 Card.

Nelly’s hasn’t been able to keep up our outstanding over 63% NBA regular season pace in the unique format of the postseason this year but we’ll hope for a few more wins in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals, having gone 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season. We are on a strong MLB run the past four weeks with a 16-9 run since Aug. 18, mainly playing over/under picks.

We are having some challenges with updating our website – if you are unable to complete an order on the site, please email us at nelly@nellysports.com or call 1-800-33-NELLY.

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First Big Football Weekend

NFL Week 1 got underway last night and a big weekend is ahead with college football Saturday, the NFL Sunday, plus NBA, NHL, and MLB games throughout the week.

Nelly’s has our first NFL 2/3 available for Sunday and we’ll look to stay perfect in college with a daytime pick on Saturday!

Bobby Dalton opened his football season with a winner on Thursday and should have his next picks up Saturday AM.

Big E is 2-1 in his football Biggies so far and has guaranteed Biggies for $9.94 Saturday & Sunday, plus his first edition of the Top 5 Ticket.

Maximum Sports has a 3/5 offer in the NFL with a guarantee to hit 60%!

We unfortunately are having some technical issues on our website and the updates are not yet completed. If you are interested in any of the available picks or subscriptions from Nelly’s or our featured handicappers and are having trouble purchasing on the site, please email us at nelly@nellysports.com or call 1-800-336-3559 to complete your order.

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The NFL Returns

Tonight is the highly anticipated first game of the 2020 NFL season. While tonight’s game features the biggest spread of Week 1, it provides a compelling storyline with a AFC Playoff rematch of one of the wildest games in recent memory.

Keep posted for possible selections for Football tonight as well as MLB, NBA, and NHL action.

We are in the process of some maintenance on our website, if you don’t see a product or have trouble ordering on the site please email us at nelly@nellysports.com or call us at 1-800-336-3559.

Issue #8 of the Green Sheet coverall all of this week’s college and pro football games was posted on Wednesday, join us for the full season subscription.

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Happy Labor Day

We hope everyone enjoys a safe and pleasant holiday – while Labor Day generally means the start of football the unique 2020 sports calendar is in the thick of the NBA & NHL playoffs while the MLB Postseason race is heating up with only a few weeks left in the regular season. College football is officially underway and next week some of the heavyweights will be in action with opening games for several ACC & Big XII teams.

This Wednesday’s Green Sheet (Issue #8) will cover those upcoming college games as well as Week 1 in the NFL, starting Thursday night with a rematch of a memorable playoff game in the AFC Playoffs last season. If you aren’t already subscribed, now is a great time to join in as this could be the longest Green Sheet season ever if there is winter and spring college football. Sign up here for the full season subscription.

Nelly’s hit over 63% in the NBA regular season and while the playoffs have been a back-and-forth affair for us so far we have had a nice second round including going 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. We have a pick in today’s huge Game 5 between Boston and Toronto for just $15!

We’ve also had a hot streak in baseball following back-to-back winning months to start the shortened 2020 season. We are on a 13-5 run in our last 18 picks and we have a Holiday Pick for MLB action Monday for $15 pay after you win!

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton hit 2 out of 3 in MLB action yesterday and he owns a 13-10 NBA Playoff record. Don’t miss Big Dog selections in NBA, MLB, and possibly the NHL Monday.

The Big E is 2-0 in college football with Thursday & Saturday winners – check out daily selections for $9.94 or join for an extended subscription with the B.E.S.T.

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13-4 MLB RUN

Nelly’s had winning months of July and August in the 2020 MLB season and we are already 4-1 in September, riding a 13-4 overall run since August 18.

Don’t miss a Daytime Delivery Total on the diamond Sunday or consider joining through the World Series with nearly two full months of the season remaining.

Bobby Dalton also cashed a 7star in MLB action last night – he also was a winner in the NBA Playoffs with a 7star total!

Nelly’s is 5-2 in the 2nd Round of the NBA Playoffs so far looking to build on an over 63% NBA regular season in 2019-20. We’ll play a side in one of today’s Playoff Matchups – just $15 pay after you win!

Big E has released two football picks and both were winners with 1-0 results in college football Thursday & Saturday!

The next issue of the Green Sheet covering NFL Week 1 will be out by Wednesday, Sep. 9!

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5-1 start in Round 2 of the Playoffs

Nelly’s is heating up again in the NBA with a 5-1 run to start Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs. Get on board for the rest of the postseason to build on an over 63% regular season, or check out tonight’s guaranteed basketball selection for only $15!

Nelly’s Baseball has hit 75% so far in September, while riding a 12-4 run in our last 16 picks since August 18. We’ve delivered great success on over/under picks on the diamond and a great pick is set for Saturday early on the schedule for only $15!

Football is officially here – Green Sheet Issue #7 features our NFL Preview content plus a look at the handful of college games this weekend.

The Big E won his first official pick with South Alabama on Thursday and he has a 10* Biggie lined up for Saturday as well, $9.94 pay after you win!

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton was a winner in NBA Playoff action last night and he has picks in Baseball, Basketball, and Hockey for Saturday with great guaranteed opportunities on the big sports schedule to start the holiday weekend.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

967/968 OVER 6.5 Detroit Tigers (Boyd) at Minnesota Twins (Dobnak) 1:10 PM CT (Game 1 7inn)

Playing the ‘over’ in a 7 inning game is a little uncomfortable but setting those numbers is a great challenge for the oddsmakers as well as everyone adjusts to this season’s uniqueness. The Twins have slid into third place in the surprisingly fierce AL Central with the fourth place Tigers even a .500 team on the edge of the playoff cut line. Matthew Boyd has been a talented pitcher stuck on terrible teams the past three years but as the Tigers have shown life this season, the left-hander has turned in disastrous results. His strikeout counts are high but he has surrendered nine home runs in seven starts and his ERA is 7.27 even after a strong outing vs. the Twins last week. Randy Dobnak’s fine campaign hit a wall in Detroit allowing 12 hits and six runs in his last start as both teams should have a comfort level at the plate in this matchup. While Dobnak was a nice early season surprise his strikeout rate is limited and his xFIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. He has also compiled wins vs. the Pirates, Indians, Brewers, and twice vs. Kansas City as he has benefitted from mostly facing bad offensive opposition. With 16 runs the past three games finally back at home after a long road trip, the Twins seem to be back on track offensively.  The season splits suggest that both teams prefer facing the other hand, with Minnesota better vs. righties and Detroit better vs. lefties but these teams are familiar with these starters and both bullpens have had mediocre results in the past 10 games. Those recent splits also show Detroit batting 11 points higher vs. right-handers while scoring 6.9 runs per game while Minnesota has hit 37 points higher vs. lefties in that span. The return of Josh Donaldson boosts Minnesota’s potential vs. lefties and it will be hard to trust either starter to deliver a shutdown outing. In the first game of the double-header the ‘over’ is appealing at 6.5.

Nelly’s is 3-0 in September MLB while 12-3 since August 18 in baseball picks – don’t miss tonight’s MLB TOTAL DOMINATION pick for only $15.

Nelly’s is 4-1 in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs and we are back with a Conference Semis Side for Friday, pay after you win for $15!

Bobby Dalton has NHL, NBA, and MLB offers available for Friday’s schedule!

Don’t miss Green Sheet Issue #7 with our opening college football opinions and our NFL season predictions – sign up now for the full season subscription to the newsletter in what will be a unique and possibly quite lengthy football season!