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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#929/930 ‘OVER 10’ New York Mets (Matz) at Minnesota Twins (Pineda) 7:10 PM CT

Michael Pineda has allowed just one run in four of his last five starts to best his season line that features a 4.56 ERA. His walk rate has been extremely low this season but he has been victim to 16 home runs in 17 starts. Pineda hasn’t shown a big preference for pitching at Target Field and right-handed hitters have pretty strong numbers against him. Steven Matz simply hasn’t developed into the quality starter the Mets thought they had when he broke into the league in 2015 and 2016. Matz is 12-24 the past three seasons with a 4.68 ERA and he was removed from the rotation in early July after a run of lousy outings, allowing 24 runs over his last five starts. He didn’t fare any better as a reliever allowing two runs in just over two innings and he now has to face a lineup with an .868 season OPS vs. left-handed pitchers while Matz owns a 7.07 road ERA on the season. Minnesota took two of three from Cleveland to start the second half in a huge series and while Minnesota hasn’t matched its amazing May pace in recent weeks the scoring remains strong, averaging 5.3 runs per game since June started and leading baseball in home runs. The ‘over’ is 28-17 in Mets road games and while Target Field has averaged only 9.1 runs per game, the summer weather is much more conducive to scoring after some cold weather games the first two months brought the average down. New York also owns a 5.55 bullpen ERA on the season. These teams split two games in April with a combined 37 runs despite better pitchers in both games on both sides. While the Mets have been a dysfunctional group that has slipped out of the NL wild card race, the offense has plenty of promise and has a steady .771 team OPS the past 20 games, hitting 31 home runs in that span. The Mets have scored at least three runs in 11 consecutive road games and Twins pitching has allowed four or more runs in 12 of the past 16 games. It is hot and humid in Minneapolis with the wind blowing a bit out to right and while at first glance a double-digit total at Target Field seems high, it can be justified with two shaky starters and struggling bullpens as well as home run power throughout both lineups.

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