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#956 St. Louis Cardinals (Wainwright) -140 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) 7:15 PM CT

Adam Wainwright owns a 4.71 ERA on the season but one bad start at Wrigley Field skews the numbers as Wainwright had posted four quality starts in his previous five starts before running into trouble in Chicago last Sunday. At home Wainwright owns a 3.00 ERA and he gets to face a struggling Pirates lineup with a .675 team OPS on the season.

Trevor Williams was a clear-cut regression candidate this spring after a strong 2018 season that saw his ERA finish 1.5 runs lower than his xFIP. His strikeout rate is again among the worst of eligible NL starters at just 6.6 K/9 and his xFIP is 4.35 this season despite a respectable 3.74 ERA. Williams has allowed 16 hits and nine runs in his last two starts and hasn’t allowed fewer than two runs in any of his last six starts.

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The offensive splits for the Cardinals are very clear with a .794 team OPS vs. right-handers and a .674 team OPS vs. left-handers. Against a righty last night the Cardinals had a big night and eventually torched the Pittsburgh pitching staff for 17 runs. Despite the big output the Cardinals still failed in 14 at-bats with runners in scoring position and didn’t hit a single home run in the game while having only one two-out RBI as the damage could have been even worse. Pittsburgh has a 5.98 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and St. Louis is 14-4 in the last 18 home games.

Check out a 10* Best Bet on the diamond from Bobby Dalton Friday or look for a MLB total from Nelly’s tonight.