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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘OVER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) 6:05 PM CT

Vince Velasquez has posted a 1.99 ERA in four starts and a relief inning for the Phillies, helping the rotation greatly with the early season struggles of Nick Pivetta and Aaron Nola. There are some big red flags for Velasquez however with his worst start his only home outing and an xFIP of 4.22. He has left 96 percent of his baserunners on base while posting a .228 BABIP. He has also made starts in Miami and at Citi Field for very favorable opportunities. Some light rain in possible in Philadelphia Tuesday but conditions shouldn’t be detrimental to offense and Philadelphia has scored 5.2 runs per game this season.

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The Phillies have struggled pitching however with 4.7 runs per game allowed and Citizens Bank Park has averaged 10.5 runs per game this season with the Phillies averaging 6.1 runs per game at home. This is the third city on the current road trip for the Tigers who are the AL’s lowest scoring team with only 91 runs. Detroit has averaged 4.9 runs per game over the past 10 contests, posting at least four runs in six of the past nine games and averaging 5.0 runs per game on this road trip.

Tyson Ross was scratched from this start but while Spencer Turnbull might look like a better option with a 2.77 ERA a 4.46 xFIP is a more realistic account. Turnbull hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts but he has also faced a light crop of opposing lineups this season. His 3.8 BB/9 is a concern and little in his career numbers suggests that his current pace is sustainable with Turnbull posting one career win and a 4.04 ERA in now just over 42 innings at the MLB level. Surrendering flyballs at a high rate against the Phillies in this ballpark can be problematic and the Detroit bullpen owns a 4.81 ERA on the season while Philadelphia hasn’t been much better as both bullpens feature a WHIP above 1.40. Over the past 10 games Detroit has a 8.37 bullpen ERA and with a double-header a week ago and several short starting efforts over the weekend the Tigers haven’t had much chance to recover even with an off day Monday.

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Bobby Dalton has gone 3-0 each of the past two days on the diamond – win again with his next TRIPS-2-WIN 2/3 offer for Tuesday night. Nelly’s MLB has had a forgettable April in a small sample but we expect to get an over/under winner in tonight and have turned in a profit in four consecutive MLB seasons.