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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#978 Los Angeles Angels (Pena) +145 over Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff) 9:07 PM CT

Brandon Woodruff wasn’t overly successful as a starter in his minor league climb but flourished last season out of the bullpen before becoming a postseason hero in a starting role. The plan to shift the 26-year old into the rotation full-time this season hasn’t gone smoothly with 12 hits and six runs allowed in nine innings. His strikeout potential is there but after struggling in a pair of home starts his road debut could be a challenge with Woodruff featuring a half-run rise in his road ERA last season. Woordruff was also a slow starter last season with marginal numbers in April and May before blossoming late in the season and his inflated valuation tonight for the Brewers is hard to justify. Josh Hader might be available again after his long outing on Sunday but the Milwaukee bullpen has struggled so far this season including allowing four runs last night and posting a 5.40 ERA on the season.

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At 29, Felix Pena isn’t a high-ceiling option for the Angels but he had capable results last season in his first starting opportunity at the MLB level. He impressed this spring and has pitched better than it looks so far this season. He owns a 10.8 K/9 despite a 5.40 ERA and he has allowed only eight hits over two starts while facing formidable offensive teams. He has better numbers vs. left-handers so far this season and could be able to neutralize some of the big bats in the Milwaukee lineup. After a hot start to the season the Brewers have lost three of the past four games while the Angels are riding five consecutive wins as the offense has turned a corner back at home. The Angels have scored 6.4 runs per game at home while posting much better results vs. right-handers. The absence of Mike Trout has pushed this price about 30 cents and the home underdog opportunity is favorable for the Angels.

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