#265 Miami Dolphins +9 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM CT
The Colts have some momentum with four straight wins to reach 5-5 but they beat teams that are a combined 13-27 in that run while getting to face a back-up quarterback last week against a Titans team that provided the highest quality win for the Colts in that run. Ryan Tannehill is set to return for Miami this week as they won’t again get to face a backup quarterback but some rust is possible for the Miami offense. It is the Colts that will be shorthanded on offense however with Center Ryan Kelly ruled out to shake up the offensive line while only two healthy tight ends are available this week for Indianapolis.
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While the Colts held the Titans to just 10 points last week allowing 28 to the Raiders and 26 to the Jaguars presents some concern for the Indianapolis defense and Tannehill had very capable numbers this season before his injury. 5-5 on the season, the Dolphins are still in the AFC Wild Card picture and Miami enters this critical game off a bye week for a potential advantage. Miami is only 1-4 on the road but they have had to face the Patriots, Bengals, Texans, and Packers in those road losses as this is likely the most favorable road game for the team since a Week 2 win over the Jets.
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The Colts haven’t been a favorite of more than seven points in four years going back to November of 2014 as this is an inflated price to give with a Colts defense that has surrendered 25 points per game through what rates as the second weakest schedule in the league. The Colts have the seventh most passing attempts in the league but Miami has the far superior pass defense in this matchup with the Colts allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of throws this season, the second worst mark in the league only ahead of Tampa Bay’s historically bad pass defense. Those marginal pass numbers have come against Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold in the past five games as while Tannehill isn’t a star quarterback he compares very favorably with that grouping.
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Nelly’s went 3-0 in the NFL last Sunday while 11-5 the past five weeks – get Sunday’s 2/3 for $25! Bobby Dalton went 4-0 Saturday and is on an 8-1 run in football totals while going 12-7 in NFL 10* picks this season – get a 10* total as part of a High Five Offer for NFL Week 12 for $39.99. Maximum Sports has a guaranteed 5-Pack with a 60% guarantee Sunday coming off cashing his 10* Game of the Month yesterday with Ohio State. Point Train has 5-unit Total for Sunday night, coming off a 5-unit winner last night. Big E also has his next 10* Biggie coming off winning his Game of the Month last Sunday!