#460 Miami Dolphins -3 over New York Jets 12:00 PM CT
The Dolphins have a -45 scoring differential despite being 4-4. The offense has managed to keep pace with Brock Osweiler the past three weeks but the defense has allowed 102 points. Miami is 3-1 at home this season and the Dolphins beat the Jets 20-12 in Week 2. New York fell behind early but had a 362-257 yardage edge, playing on a short week. Since 1998 the Jets are 13-2-4 ATS in Miami but the offense is simply overmatched right now with all of the injuries.
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The Dolphins have topped 100 rushing yards in four straight games while averaging 5.3 yards per rush as Miami has looked like a complete offensive team in contrast to the franchise’s recent reputation. In contrast the Jets are posting just 5.3 yards per play this season and there just isn’t much help for rookie quarterback Sam Darnold who places 31st in the league in QBR and has been responsible for 14 turnovers in eight games. The Jets have been out-gained on the ground in six of eight games this season and Miami has posted a half yard more per carry in this matchup despite having to lean on the passing game more under Osweiler. The maligned well-traveled quarterback has played well in three games since taking over at quarterback despite facing three quality teams and two very formidable defenses.
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The Jets have allowed 260 passing yards per game on 62 percent completions and New York has been out-passed in seven of eight games this season. The Jets have been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season while scoring 34 or more in all three wins to boost the overall numbers but Miami has gotten better with the quarterback change while the Jets have become much worse with its depleted roster since these teams last met in Miami’s 20-12 win in Week 2.
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