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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘OVER 7.5’ Oakland Athletics (Manaea) at Houston Astros (Verlander) 7:10 PM CT

Justin Verlander’s Cy Young pace has certainly eroded in recent starts. While his 2.15 ERA is still an impressive mark with over 125 innings under his belt his xFIP is 3.51 as more regression could be coming. Verlander has allowed three or more runs in four of his last six starts and while his strikeout and walk rates remain among the AL’s best he has been victim to seven home runs allowed in those last six starts. Oakland hit two home runs against Verlander less than a month ago and the Houston right-hander has slightly worse numbers at Minute Maid Park this season.

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Sean Manaea had a dominant April with a no-hitter and while it has been a steady season for the left-hander leading the surprisingly competitive Athletics he has mostly had average results. His 3.33 ERA is overshadowed by a 4.35 FIP and his 6.2 K/9 isn’t threatening. Take out six excellent starts in April and his ERA is 4.76 with a 5.08 FIP and just a 5.3 K/9. The Astros beat Manaea in May and Oakland’s bullpen has displayed some recent wear with a 4.50 ERA the past 10 games.

There are red hot offensive teams with Oak;land 22-12 since June started while averaging more than 5.1 runs per game. On the season Oakland has shown a great preference for facing right-handed pitching and over the past 24 games the Athletics have a solid .789 team OPS with 1.7 home runs per game and 5.3 runs per game. Houston has scored 5.7 runs per nine vs. left-handers the past 10 games while posting a .812 team OPS the past 25 games, averaging 5.3 runs per game.

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Minute Maid Park has been surprisingly low scoring this season but with two quality starters on the mound this is a low number particularly with last night’s 2-0 result. Top relievers were burned yesterday in a game that featured just one hit with runners in scoring position. In 10 games between these teams there has been 100 combined runs as a bounce back for both offenses looks likely Tuesday.

Nelly’s hit an underdog last night now 28-17 since May 28 – get Tuesday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has a 10* side and a 5* total tonight for just $19.99 – Dalton is on a 17-10 Best Bet run while on a 54-36 interleague run!