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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#926 Cincinnati Reds (Romano) -130 over Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 6:10 PM CT

24-year-old Sal Romano is an imposing figure on the mound as one of the largest in stature players in the game. He showed some promise in 16 starts on a bad Reds team last season but he hasn’t taken a step forward this season, struggling through 14 starts with a 5.67 ERA for a last place team. Romano has better numbers at home and he has been very effective against right-handed batters with a .225 batting average against and his season xFIP is a bit more respectable at 4.82. He delivered a fine start at Kansas City in his last outing and in six of his last eleven outings he has allowed two or fewer runs.

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Left-hander Matt Boyd has posted a 3.23 ERA this season but his xFIP is actually higher than Romano’s at 4.98. Boyd has benefitted from a .232 BABIP and his strikeout numbers are marginal with a 7.0 K/9. Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher and pitching in Cincinnati that could be a problem compared with his spacious home park in Detroit. Not surprisingly Boyd has much worse numbers on the road with the Tigers just 13-20 in road games this season despite being a surprise team in the AL so far this season.

The Reds have a bullpen edge in this matchup with a 2.92 ERA over the past 10 games in relief innings and overall this season both teams have fared better vs. left-handed pitching to give Cincinnati the edge in tonight’s pitching matchup. Since starting the season 8-27 the Reds have played exactly .500 ball since May 8 including winning four of the past six games ahead of this home stand. Detroit has quietly won five in a row but they did so with light scoring as the Tigers have been held to four or fewer runs in 12 of the past 15 games. Trust the oddmakers and support the small favorite tonight despite the contrasting records for these squads.

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