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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#380 Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas State 11:00 AM CT

Kansas State got in the win column last week but struggling against Kansas paints a significant gap between the Wildcats and the real contenders in the conference. Texas Tech has lost three in a row to reach a critical juncture in the season. The Red Raiders played right with Oklahoma early last week before failing to score in the final 27 minutes.

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Kansas State won 44-38 last season and has won five of the past six meetings but this is a season-defining game for the Red Raiders and perhaps the Kliff Kingsbury era as a loss this week likely means another losing season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series and a lesser Texas Tech team was favored by five in the last Lubbock meeting two years ago, a 59-44 win for the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech out-gained West Virginia by 117 yards in the loss in mid-October and the Red Raiders have already played three of the top four teams tied on top of the Big XII standings to skew the numbers with Kansas State only playing two of those games so far and both of those games were at home despite getting out-gained by nearly 400 yards combined. Kansas State could have an edge in the running game in this matchup but that will be due to inept passing under Alek Delton who has taken over at quarterback.

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Kansas State has been out-gained in all five Big XII games, losing the yardage battle by 140 or more yards in each of the last five games and Kansas State has already played the two winless teams in the conference. Texas Tech is on an 11-4-1 ATS run at home and while Bill Snyder once held an amazing underdog track record has deteriorated and the Wildcats are just 3-5 ATS in the last eight instances as a road underdog.

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