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Free MLB Pick – Monday, June 27

‘UNDER 7.5’ Houston Astros (McHugh) at Los Angeles Angels (Shoemaker) 9:05 PM CT

After scoring 26 runs Friday and Saturday the Astros were shut down with just one run Sunday in Kansas City, ending a seven-game winning streak for a Houston squad that has climbed back into playoff contention. Houston’s scoring has been erratic as they have been held to four or fewer runs in five of the last 10 games and on the year the road production features a big decline from the numbers in Houston. Matt Shoemaker has a lousy record for the Angels but he has been on a dominant run since mid-May posting 62 strikeouts in his last seven starts with a quality start in six of those games. Two of those quality starts came against this Houston lineup, posting big strikeouts counts in a 7-2 win and a 3-2 loss. While the Angels scored seven runs Sunday to break a six-game slide this is a team that has topped four runs just three times in the last 10 games. The Angels are one of the worst scoring teams in baseball this year and Collin McHugh presents a tough matchup for the team. After a slow start McHugh has been heading in the right direction in recent weeks and his FIP is nearly a full run below his ERA. McHugh is generating strikeouts at a strong rate while rarely walking batters and he pitched well against the Angels last week in a 3-2 win at home. Both bullpens have capable recent numbers and the ‘under’ is riding a 9-2 run in Houston road games. Over nine runs per game have been scored in Anaheim this season but in 17 of 39 games there has been seven or fewer runs scored and this is a pitching matchup that is much stronger than the season numbers suggest with both starters on strong recent runs.

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